委内瑞拉遭袭对国际油价影响有限，短期不改供应过剩局面

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela aims to take control of the country's oil industry, which may have limited immediate impact on international oil prices but could strengthen the role of the petrodollar in the long term [1][3]. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Industry - Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves globally and is a founding member of OPEC, but its oil production has dwindled to about 1 million barrels per day, significantly lower than Saudi Arabia and Russia [1]. - The country's oil output has been severely affected by aging infrastructure, U.S. sanctions, and lack of investment, leading to its minimal contribution to international oil supply [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the U.S. operation may not significantly affect oil prices due to the ongoing loose supply conditions and Venezuela's long-standing low production levels [1][2]. Group 2: International Oil Prices - Following the escalation of U.S.-Venezuela tensions, international oil prices saw a brief rebound, but investor enthusiasm remains low, with expectations of only a slight increase in Brent crude prices [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil production growth will exceed demand, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [2]. - OPEC+ discussions about gradually restoring production could further loosen the global supply-demand balance, putting additional downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - If the U.S. successfully controls Venezuela's oil industry, it could increase global supply and potentially disrupt OPEC's pricing power, thereby reinforcing the petrodollar system [2][3]. - The petrodollar system, established in the 1970s, has solidified the dollar's dominance in global oil trade, providing the U.S. with significant economic advantages [3]. - Recent geopolitical shifts, including the abandonment of dollar pricing by some oil-producing countries, indicate a gradual weakening of the petrodollar system [4].