铂钯超低库存短缺 2026年受制于囤积关税

Core Insights - Silver has led the precious metals market with nearly a 150% increase in 2025, while platinum and palladium have also seen significant gains of over 126% and approximately 80% respectively, yet platinum group metals (PGMs) still lag behind the broader precious metals sector [1] - Analysts suggest that investors should broaden their focus to include platinum and potential palladium in 2026 due to tightening supply conditions and resilient demand expected to support prices throughout the year [1] - Approximately 80% of platinum and palladium demand comes from the automotive industry for catalytic converters, but the acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has posed long-term headwinds; however, with a moderate adjustment in EV growth expectations, demand for internal combustion engine vehicles remains strong in regions like the U.S., providing ongoing support for PGM demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum plays a significant role in glass manufacturing and the electronics industry, with demand expected to remain robust; however, there are concerns about whether supply can keep pace, as the World Platinum Investment Council indicates that the market may trend towards balance after three consecutive years of shortages [1] - The critical issue lies in the extremely low global inventories, with current above-ground platinum stocks able to meet only about five months of demand, making it difficult for inventories to rebuild significantly, leading to continued tightness in the physical market and elevated premiums [1] Structural Supply Constraints - Structural supply limitations are a long-term issue, with over a decade of underinvestment restricting long-term output, while geopolitical factors exacerbate strategic competition; the U.S. Geological Survey has classified platinum and palladium as critical metals as of November last year [2] - Analysts indicate that the global shift towards a "wartime economy" will incentivize the stockpiling of critical minerals, and the transition from "just-in-time" production to "just-in-case" inventory models will continue to hinder the recovery of global inventories, intensifying market tightness [2] Price Outlook and Risks - Market outlook for platinum prices in 2026 shows divergence, with bullish views predicting platinum could reach $2,000 per ounce, averaging around $1,800 in the second half of the year due to structural shortages potentially driving prices higher [3] - A major risk is that if the U.S. does not impose tariffs on platinum group metals, it could lead to increased inflows of platinum and palladium into the U.S. market, raising exchange inventories and altering the supply-demand balance, potentially shifting the market from shortage to slight surplus [3] - Cautious perspectives suggest that if platinum and palladium enter a state of oversupply, industrial consumers may not need to rely on investor sell-offs to acquire metals, reducing demand pressure in the spot market, particularly as palladium is expected to remain in considerable surplus starting next year [3]