【金融发展】2025年国债市场年鉴：筹资精准服务国家战略 收益率于预期交织中锚定“新平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].