别卷峰谷价差了！储能“新路子”席卷！下一轮赢家是它？

Core Insights - The Guangdong electricity spot market has welcomed the first five power generation virtual power plant trading units, with a total capacity of approximately 33 million kilowatts, marking a significant step towards fair market entry for distributed renewable energy resources [1][10] - The virtual power plants, formed by aggregating distributed photovoltaic, user-side energy storage, and charging piles, allow for active market participation, transforming previously passive grid resources into responsive market entities [1][10] - The Jiangsu province has also accelerated its virtual power plant development, aiming for a regulation capacity of over 5 million kilowatts by 2030, with an initial investment of approximately 10.39 million yuan for 100 projects [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional peak-valley arbitrage model for commercial energy storage is losing its certainty due to changes in market conditions, with the installed capacity of renewable energy expected to exceed 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2025 [3][12] - The price of electricity during peak hours has risen, while daytime prices have dropped below 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, making it challenging for energy storage to maintain profitability [3][12] - Policy adjustments have further weakened the economic viability of projects relying solely on peak-valley price differences, as new regulations remove the safety net of government-mandated time-of-use pricing [4][13] Group 2: Virtual Power Plant Benefits - Virtual power plants are redefining energy storage revenue models by combining aggregation of distributed resources with intelligent scheduling, leading to a composite revenue model that includes basic arbitrage and various ancillary services [5][14] - The accuracy of power forecasting for aggregated resources has reached over 92%, with deviation assessment costs reduced by 67% [5][14] - The revenue sources for virtual power plants include dynamic basic arbitrage, peak shaving services, frequency regulation, and demand response, showcasing a shift from single arbitrage tools to flexible adjustment assets [7][16] Group 3: Industry Transformation - Leading companies in the energy storage sector are transitioning from equipment manufacturing to service-oriented business models, enhancing their capabilities across the entire value chain [8][18] - Major players like Envision and Huawei are integrating hardware, software, and operational services to maximize the lifecycle value of energy storage systems [8][18] - Cross-industry players, including state-owned enterprises, are leveraging their resources to establish a comprehensive advantage in the virtual power plant market [8][19] Group 4: Policy and Technological Drivers - National policies have set ambitious targets for virtual power plant regulation capacity, aiming for 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [9][19] - Local governments are exploring differentiated policies, such as Guangdong's open load-type virtual power plant trading and Jiangsu's focus on cultivating demonstration projects [9][19] - The future of energy storage is seen as promising, with virtual power plants enabling scale effects and transitioning from single arbitrage to diversified revenue streams, supported by ongoing technological advancements and policy improvements [9][19]