2026年“两新”政策明确支持绿色智能产品

Core Viewpoint - The recently announced 2026 national subsidy policy emphasizes the promotion of green, low-carbon, and intelligent products, particularly focusing on the replacement of old vehicles with electric ones and expanding the scope of subsidies for consumer goods [2][11]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, highlighting support for low-emission vehicles, especially electric ones [2][11]. - The 2024 "Two New" policy aims to establish a long-term mechanism combining incentives and constraints, accelerating the elimination of outdated products and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development [3][12]. - The 2025 policy expands support to include electronic information, safety production, and facility agriculture, with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green equipment applications [4][13]. Group 2: Subsidy Details - The new subsidy policy includes a maximum of 20,000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles, which is 12% of the vehicle price, and a maximum of 15,000 yuan for 2.0L or below fuel vehicles, which is 10% of the vehicle price [4][13]. - The policy introduces a "double cap" on subsidies, limiting both the maximum amount and the percentage of the vehicle price eligible for subsidies, indicating a shift towards supporting higher-priced vehicles [4][13]. Group 3: Market Impact - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has significantly increased, with sales of new energy light trucks reaching 15.21 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69% [6][15]. - The market for new energy heavy trucks also saw substantial growth, with sales exceeding 185,800 units in the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 178% [6][15]. - The emphasis on electric trucks in the new policy is expected to further enhance their market penetration by 2026, with significant subsidies for both new energy and National VI heavy trucks [8][17]. Group 4: Future Projections - Industry experts predict that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks will exceed 50%, with market sizes surpassing 450,000 units, while light trucks are expected to exceed 60% penetration [16][17]. - The sanitation sector is also anticipated to experience growth in new energy vehicles, supported by long-term policies, with expectations for continued expansion during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [8][17].