进口牛肉保障措施：权衡自由贸易与国内产业

Core Viewpoint - China's livestock industry needs to adjust its production structure based on comparative advantages, with pork production having a comparative advantage while beef and lamb production lacks it [1][3][10]. Group 1: Trade Measures and Investigations - In 2024, China's Ministry of Commerce initiated trade remedy investigations on imported pork and beef, with final rulings expected by December 2025 [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce found that imported pork and related products from the EU were being dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a final ruling confirming this in December 2025 [2][3]. - A safeguard investigation on imported beef was announced in December 2024, leading to a ruling in December 2025 that recognized serious damage to the domestic industry due to increased imports [2]. Group 2: Production and Import Trends - China is both a major meat producer and importer, with meat production increasing from 45.84 million tons in 1996 to 97.8 million tons in 2024, despite challenges like the African swine fever [4][5]. - In 2024, China imported 6.67 million tons of meat while only exporting 0.63 million tons, indicating a significant trade imbalance [5][8]. - The import of beef and lamb has been rising, with beef imports reaching 2.91 million tons in 2024, while lamb imports fluctuated significantly [8][11]. Group 3: Comparative Advantage and Future Outlook - The lack of comparative advantage in beef and lamb production suggests that import levels will remain high in the foreseeable future, while pork production benefits from a strong comparative advantage [10][12]. - The domestic supply of beef and lamb is heavily reliant on imports, with the import ratio for beef reaching 37% of domestic production by 2024, compared to only 2-4% for pork [11][12]. - The focus on pork production aligns with sustainable agricultural practices, as pig manure is more beneficial for soil health compared to that of cattle and sheep [12][13]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To balance free trade and domestic industry needs, adjustments should be made to reduce beef and lamb production while increasing pork production [14]. - Developing the prepared food industry can enhance import demand for agricultural products and meet the growing overseas market for convenient food options, serving as a cultural export as well [14].