2026年美元汇率展望：趋势性走弱与周期性反弹的博弈

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "abandoning the dollar and buying gold" is expected to continue into 2026, with a general expectation of a weaker dollar amidst complex market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the dollar experienced a significant decline, with the index dropping from a high of 109.24 to a low of 96.99, resulting in an annual decline of approximately 9.3% to 9.7%, marking the worst performance in eight years [2]. - The decline was attributed to the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, as the Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in response to economic slowdown and inflation easing, reducing the attractiveness of dollar assets [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment for 2026 - Major institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, hold a bearish outlook on the dollar for 2026, based on four key factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with expectations of further rate cuts [3]. 2. Divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, with others tightening or maintaining rates, which could narrow the interest rate differential and drive capital away from dollar assets [3]. 3. A potential shift in global economic growth dynamics, with more optimistic expectations for non-U.S. economies compared to the U.S. [4]. 4. Structural pressures from the trend of "de-dollarization," as concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and trade policies diminish the dollar's credibility [4]. Group 3: Potential Factors for Dollar Rebound - Despite the prevailing downtrend, several factors could trigger a temporary rebound in the dollar: 1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may not be as accommodative as anticipated, with persistent inflation and internal decision-making divisions adding uncertainty [5][6]. 2. The tightening of monetary policy in non-U.S. economies may face limitations due to domestic constraints, potentially affecting their currency strength [6]. 3. The U.S. economy may demonstrate unexpected resilience, supported by fiscal expansion and the growth of the AI sector, which could enhance overall productivity and attract global capital [7]. 4. The "de-dollarization" process may be slow, and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven asset could be reaffirmed in times of geopolitical tension [7]. Group 4: Overall Outlook for 2026 - The dollar is expected to face a tug-of-war between long-term weakening trends and potential cyclical rebounds, with key variables including central bank policies, the impact of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and global capital flows in response to geopolitical risks [8].