招商策略：开年攻势，指数新高

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by improved fundamentals, increased government investment, and a favorable liquidity environment. The probability of reaching new highs is increasing as companies prepare to disclose their annual performance forecasts, which are likely to show significant year-on-year growth due to low base effects from the previous year [2][14][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Government special bond issuance is anticipated to accelerate, and central budget investments are expected to increase, leading to a marginal improvement in economic fundamentals. The annual performance forecasts for companies are likely to show a significant rebound in year-on-year growth due to low performance bases from the previous year [2][15][24]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain favorable, with domestic funds likely to increase their positions in A-shares. The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract foreign capital back into the A-share market [4][16][24]. Industry and Sector Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on in January include technology, industrial metals, and consumer services. Specific areas of interest are commercial aerospace, AI applications, AI computing power, and semiconductor equipment [2][14][24]. - The recommended sectors for investment include power equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors [3][18][24]. Liquidity and Capital Supply - The overall net inflow of incremental funds is expected to remain stable in January, with foreign and insurance capital likely to be the main sources of new funds. The central bank's actions to manage liquidity around tax periods and year-end are expected to support a return to a more accommodative liquidity environment [4][16][24]. - The demand for funds is expected to increase, with significant net purchases of ETFs and a rebound in refinancing activities, indicating a growing demand for capital in the market [4][17][24]. Performance Outlook and Earnings Forecast - The performance of industrial enterprises is expected to show a mixed picture, with some sectors like high-tech manufacturing and certain resource categories likely to see improved earnings growth. However, sectors such as mining and traditional consumer goods may continue to face challenges [5][52][54]. - The upcoming earnings disclosure period in January is critical, as companies with strong earnings growth in the past are likely to perform better in the market. Conversely, companies that fail to meet expectations may face significant downward pressure on their stock prices [48][50][54].