Rivian Deliveries Tanked in Q4: What Investors Should Know

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive reported a significant decline in vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025, with 9,745 vehicles delivered, representing a 31% year-over-year decrease from 14,183 deliveries in the same quarter last year, which is worse than Tesla's 16% decline for the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Performance - The decline in deliveries was anticipated by management and aligned with the company's expectations [2]. - Rivian's Q4 performance should be contextualized with Q3, where deliveries increased by 32% year-over-year, driven by a rush of orders before the expiration of the federal clean-vehicle credit on September 30, 2025 [4]. - Rivian's production increased sequentially, with 10,720 vehicles produced in Q3 and 10,974 in Q4, indicating efforts to normalize inventory after delivering 23% more vehicles than produced in Q3 [5]. Group 2: Future Prospects - The focus for Rivian investors is on the upcoming launch of the R2 vehicle, expected to begin deliveries in the first half of 2026, which is anticipated to open up a larger market due to its lower price point of $45,000 [6][8]. - CEO RJ Scaringe expressed confidence in the R2, noting that it aligns well with the average price of new vehicles sold in the U.S., which is around $50,000 [7]. Group 3: Financial Health - Rivian reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $602 million for Q3, with a full-year 2025 guidance indicating an adjusted EBITDA loss between $2.00 billion and $2.25 billion [10]. - The company ended Q3 with $7.09 billion in cash and equivalents, but with a negative free cash flow of $1.3 billion for the first nine months of 2025, it will continue to deplete cash reserves until achieving positive cash flow [11]. - Despite the potential of the R2 launch, Rivian's current valuation of approximately $24 billion may be overvalued given its unprofitable business model and significant adjusted EBITDA losses [12][13].