【财经分析】地缘波澜再起 原油、沥青短期波动或将加剧

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in Venezuela's political situation have become a focal point for global markets, particularly due to its status as the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, which could significantly impact the global oil market [1] Group 1: Oil Supply and Market Impact - Venezuela's oil supply disruptions are expected to increase short-term volatility in oil and related commodities due to geopolitical risk premiums [1][4] - The U.S. military action against Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, has intensified U.S. interest in Venezuelan oil, particularly heavy crude oil, which complements U.S. light crude production [2][3] - Venezuela holds approximately 297.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, with the Orinoco heavy oil belt containing about 220 billion barrels, representing 73.9% of the country's total reserves [3] Group 2: Price Dynamics and Commodity Sensitivity - The geopolitical situation has led to a significant decrease in Venezuelan oil exports, which are at historical lows, potentially boosting oil prices due to reduced supply [4][5] - Heavy fuel oil (HSFO) and petroleum coke are expected to be the most affected commodities due to Venezuela's unique heavy, high-sulfur crude oil, which is critical for global refining processes [5] - The asphalt market is currently in a "low-price-tight balance" state, but there is potential for upward price elasticity in the coming week due to supply constraints [5] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - While short-term prices may be supported by geopolitical premiums, the long-term outlook remains complex, with potential for increased production from Venezuela to negatively impact oil prices [6][7] - Key factors to monitor include Venezuela's oil production and export data, U.S. sanctions policy, and the import volumes of diluted asphalt from China [7]