ASSA 2026 Round-up: Day 1

Core Insights - The 2026 annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations commenced, organized by the American Economic Association, featuring a diverse range of sessions on economics and social science research [1][2] Group 1: Franchising and Labor Standards - Research indicates that higher franchise density in the fast-food industry correlates with increased labor law violations, particularly regarding newer regulations like fair workweek and paid sick leave [4] - The study utilizes linked survey data and administrative data to analyze compliance with labor standards, suggesting implications for labor standards enforcement strategies [4] Group 2: Early Career Occupational Experience - A study on early career experiences within the U.S. Army reveals a 19 percentage point increase in the likelihood of remaining in similar occupations up to 20 years later, highlighting the importance of early career choices on long-term economic outcomes [5] - The research indicates that changes in occupational earnings premia account for over 60 percent of the causal variation in earnings, emphasizing the role of early experiences in economic mobility [5] Group 3: Reparative Reforms and Economic Output - A dynamic model suggests that reparative race-focused reforms can enhance macroeconomic output and social welfare, with optimal policies potentially raising GDP by 42 percent [7] - The study highlights the tension between output-based and preference-based efficiency in the context of racial hierarchy, indicating that higher status envy can diminish GDP gains from equitable reforms [7] Group 4: Worker Rights and Collective Bargaining - Novel methods to measure worker rights in collective bargaining agreements reveal that higher worker rights correlate with better management practices and can be valued at approximately 5.7 percent of wages [9] - The research shows that higher labor income tax rates increase the share of worker rights clauses while reducing pre-tax wages in unionized firms, indicating a substitution effect [9] Group 5: Climate Policy Uncertainty - A new measure of climate policy uncertainty shows an upward trend, with higher uncertainty linked to decreased output and increased prices, acting as supply shocks rather than demand shocks [12] - The analysis indicates that firms with higher exposure to climate change experience greater declines in investment and R&D due to climate policy uncertainty [12] Group 6: Racial Segregation and Environmental Equity - A study on Pittsburgh from 1910 to 1940 reveals that racial segregation exacerbated environmental inequities, with Black residents facing higher pollution levels compared to White residents [14] - The findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in discussions of racial and economic inequalities [14] Group 7: Unions and Earnings Inequality - Research indicates that union density has a counteracting effect on rising income inequality, particularly in the private sector, suggesting that recent increases in private-sector union membership may help reduce inequality [16] - The study highlights the significance of demographic factors in influencing income inequality, with union density playing a larger role in the private sector [16] Group 8: Medical Innovation and Economic Mobility - The introduction of antibiotics in 1937 significantly impacted long-term economic outcomes, with racial segregation moderating the benefits for Black Americans [18] - The research emphasizes the causal relationship between early life health and economic mobility, highlighting the need for supportive institutional environments to realize health benefits [18] Group 9: Climate Change and Market Power - Analysis shows that extreme heat increases market concentration by shifting market share from smaller to larger firms, while also reducing productivity among small firms [20] - The study quantifies the welfare loss from climate change productivity shocks, estimating a loss equivalent to 0.124 percent of manufacturing sector GDP in Europe [20]