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Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The military action against Venezuela has led to a complete halt in oil exports, with key ports like Jose port ceasing operations, affecting the country's oil supply chain [2][3] - Venezuela's current oil production is less than 1 million barrels per day, accounting for only 0.8% of global production, and its export volume is approximately 600,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical peaks [3] - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices may only rise by $1 to $2 per barrel in the short term due to the current oversupply in the global oil market [3][4] Group 2: Long-term Oil Production Outlook - If a new government in Venezuela can lift sanctions and attract foreign investment, oil exports could potentially increase to around 3 million barrels per day, which would negatively impact global oil prices [5] - The shift in Venezuela's oil export focus from China to the U.S. and its allies could reshape the global oil market dynamics, especially as the U.S. plans to invest billions in rebuilding Venezuela's energy sector [3][7] Group 3: Mineral Supply Impact - Venezuela possesses significant mineral resources, including copper and rare earths, but its global supply impact is limited, with iron ore production expected to be only 2.653 million tons in 2024, representing 0.1% of global output [8] - The political instability has led to a suspension of Chinese investments in local mining projects, but the overall risk to global supply chains remains low due to Venezuela's small market share [8][9] Group 4: Currency Settlement Implications - The recent developments pose a direct threat to the use of the Chinese yuan in cross-border settlements with Venezuela, where over 60% of oil trade was conducted in yuan [10] - China's investments in Venezuela, exceeding $60 billion over the past decade, may face devaluation risks due to the disruption in trade and potential regime change [10] - The situation may accelerate the global de-dollarization process, as the U.S. military intervention raises concerns about the safety of dollar-denominated transactions [10]