A股公司盈利增速将攀升至8%

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei forecasts that by 2026, nominal GDP growth and a narrowing decline in PPI will drive corporate revenue growth, with overall A-share company profit growth expected to rise to 8% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, while other emerging markets are significantly below long-term averages [1] - Mid-term macro policies, accelerated A-share profit growth, declining risk-free interest rates, and continuous inflow of long-term funds into the stock market will support further valuation increases in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: 1. The main theme of technological self-reliance 2. The consumer sector, with corporate profit acceleration expected to gradually boost household income and sales expenses, suggesting a strategic layout in the second half of the year 3. Sectors related to "anti-involution" 4. The pathway of Chinese enterprises going global and enhancing global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Style Allocation - Due to the positive mid-term market outlook, the "growth" style is likely to outperform the "value" style - With the ongoing "anti-involution" process, a narrowing decline in PPI and accelerated industrial profit growth suggest that the "cyclical" style may outperform the "defensive" style, with large and small-cap sectors expected to maintain a relatively balanced stance in 2026 [1]