国联民生证券包承超：市场从估值驱动转向盈利驱动

Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering in 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rise in domestic inflation [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain absolute returns driven by profit growth, although the gap with consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors will gradually narrow [1] - Despite high profit growth in the technology sector due to expanding capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, the current valuation levels of the tech industry and the overall market show a significant disparity, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing are expected to see a gradual rebound in profit growth, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing substantial profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]