2026宏观经济十大看点

Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with an expected fiscal deficit scale of no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - The new special bonds limit may increase from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction and real estate market adjustments [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with a CPI growth target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [4] - Structural monetary policy operations will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income Growth - Expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Growth Plan" is anticipated to be implemented, aiming to enhance the income capacity of residents and stimulate consumption [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government investment playing a crucial role in driving this recovery [7] - Infrastructure investment will accelerate with the commencement of new major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task in 2026, with policies to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market will undergo comprehensive reforms to support technological innovation and improve the market's inclusivity and adaptability [9][10] - Measures will be taken to enhance investor experience and broaden channels for long-term capital investment [10] Group 7: Market Competition and Regulation - Efforts to address "involution" in competition will continue, with new regulations expected to enhance market access and fair competition [11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is anticipated to provide a framework for market entry and quality standards [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with initiatives to promote AI applications across various sectors [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [13][14] - The reforms will also emphasize strategic mergers and acquisitions to improve resource allocation efficiency [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Policies aimed at improving employment and income distribution will be prioritized, with measures to support job retention and increase minimum wage standards [15]