中信证券裘翔：A股公司盈利增速将呈现前低后高态势

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Summary by Categories Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where market growth is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation until the midterm elections, where A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where uncertainties from external disturbances may increase, prompting investors to refocus on domestic markets [1] Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which is expected to further expand its commercial applications and enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]