Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-04 17:48Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "structural bull" in 2025, followed by a potential "full bull" market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The A-share bull market follows a "two-stage" pattern, with previous examples being the structural bull in 2013 followed by a full bull in 2015, and another structural bull from 2016 to 2017 followed by a full bull from 2020 to 2021 [1] - During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors reach initial high points, leading to a qualitative change in the accumulation of institutional profit effects [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The potential full bull market in 2026 is supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, a new phase in technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental capital inflow [1] - The A-share market is expected to embrace global "competitive thinking," transitioning from "following" to "leading" in external circulation, which opens up transformation space for China's development [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The leading investment themes for the 2026 bull market will focus on three main areas: the extension of AI industry trends from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of advanced manufacturing in energy storage and photovoltaics [1] - In the first half of 2026, cyclical and value sectors are likely to have relative advantages during market consolidation, with particular attention on excess returns in the basic chemicals and industrial metals sectors [1]