机构：2025年核心城市二手房成交量维持稳定规模

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with second-hand housing in core cities maintaining stable volumes through "price for volume" strategies, while improvement demand becomes the main support for the new housing market [1][6] - The report anticipates that policy optimizations in Beijing and tax reductions will be implemented by the end of 2025, with further policy efforts expected in 2026 to stabilize the real estate market [1][6] Second-hand Housing Market - In 2025, approximately 1.74 million second-hand residential units are expected to be sold in 30 key cities, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen showed significant rebounds in transaction volumes, with year-on-year increases of 7% and 4% respectively [2][1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the total market is projected to rise to about 65% in 2025, up 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] New Housing Market - Improvement housing demand is identified as a key support for the new housing market, with larger units (120-144 square meters) seeing increased sales [3] - In 2025, 20 out of 30 representative cities reported an increase in the sales of larger units compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The average clearing cycle for available inventory in 50 cities is reported to be 22.2 months, indicating a slow-moving market [3] Policy Changes - A significant policy optimization was announced in Beijing on December 24, 2025, aimed at stimulating the market through various measures, including lowering social security requirements for non-local buyers and supporting multi-child families [4] - Following the new policies, there was an increase in the average daily signing of new and second-hand homes in Beijing, indicating a positive market response [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, which will impact the sale of homes purchased for less than two years [5] Future Outlook - The report suggests that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will continue to be implemented in 2026, focusing on demand stimulation and supply optimization [6] - The overall market is still in a "de-inventory" phase, with limited new housing supply in most cities, which may pose challenges for market recovery [6]