Maduro Ouster Leaves Cuba’s Wobbling Regime Without a Benefactor

Core Viewpoint - The removal of Nicolás Maduro has left Cuba without its primary ally, exacerbating its economic crisis and leading to severe shortages of essential goods and services [1][3]. Economic Impact on Cuba - Venezuela has historically provided Cuba with the majority of its fuel and financial support, which has now been drastically reduced, leading to a deepening economic crisis [2][3]. - Cuba requires approximately 100,000 barrels of oil per day but only produces 40% of that amount, relying heavily on Venezuelan imports that have plummeted to 35,000 barrels per day [4]. - The lack of fuel has resulted in widespread blackouts, a decline in agricultural production, and a significant drop in tourism, with over 2 million Cubans lacking reliable drinking water [5]. Demographic and Social Consequences - Cuba's population has decreased by 15% over the last decade, with projections indicating a potential further decline of 20% by 2050 [6]. - The current crisis has led to visible signs of strain, including uncollected garbage, empty store shelves, and increased rates of diseases [6]. Political Dynamics - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on Cuba, with officials suggesting that the regime is weak and may collapse without external support [7][8]. - There is skepticism regarding whether other nations, such as Mexico, Russia, or Iran, can fill the gap left by Venezuela, as their contributions have been insufficient [8][10]. Future Outlook - The Cuban government faces a dire situation with no clear allies willing to risk their relations with the U.S. to support Cuba [10]. - Even if Cuba finds new fuel suppliers, the terms are unlikely to be as favorable as those previously provided by Venezuela, leading to further economic challenges [11]. - The potential for a post-Maduro government in Venezuela to alter its relationship with Cuba adds uncertainty to Cuba's future [13]. - Experts warn that the current situation represents the most severe crisis Cuba has faced in 65 years, with unpredictable outcomes [14][15].