资金涌入叠加基本面复苏 2026年A股运行基础更坚实

Core Viewpoint - Investors express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a steady and stable development, with expectations for earnings to surpass those of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The consensus among various brokerages indicates a GDP growth expectation of around 5% for 2026, driven by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [2] - A combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support economic stability, with predictions of a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a potential increase in fiscal deficit rates compared to 2025 [2][3] - The focus of fiscal policy in 2026 will be on new infrastructure, technological innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives, balancing expenditure expansion with risk prevention [3] Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw significant inflows of incremental funds in 2025, with margin financing balances reaching a historical high of 25,552.84 billion yuan, reflecting a robust market liquidity [4][5] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares increased by 25.30 trillion yuan from the beginning of 2025, with total cash dividends reaching a record high of 2.63 trillion yuan [5] Investment Sentiment - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, with institutions optimistic about continued market growth, although the pace of increase may slow [7] - Earnings for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market are projected to recover, with an expected growth rate of around 10% [8] - The market is anticipated to experience a rebalancing of investment styles, driven by the recovery of the real estate cycle and positive signals from companies expanding overseas [8]