首席经济学家展望2026： 财政、货币政策协同发力 经济延续复苏态势

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience a structural adjustment with a focus on sustainable growth, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The overall economic performance in 2025 laid a solid foundation for 2026, with GDP growth expected around 5.1% [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025 showed manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [2]. Structural Adjustments and New Economic Drivers - In 2026, the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) are projected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [3]. - The focus will shift from absolute growth to structural adjustments, with policies aimed at enhancing consumption patterns and boosting consumer confidence [3]. Fiscal Policy Initiatives - The central government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and consumer subsidies to stimulate demand [4]. - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds was allocated before the New Year to support consumption during peak periods [4]. Monetary Policy Directions - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue with interest rate cuts, potentially reducing rates by 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [5]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and supporting small and micro enterprises [5]. Policy Coordination and Long-term Growth - Recent policy measures are designed to address current economic challenges while laying a foundation for long-term growth through investment in new productive forces and social welfare [6]. - The coordinated approach of fiscal and monetary policies aims to activate domestic demand and accelerate industrial upgrades [6].