原油月报：油价大幅波动，地缘成为主要锚点

Core Viewpoint - The oil market experienced significant volatility in December 2025, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and an oversupply of crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude prices declining by 1.93% and 3.72% respectively by the end of the month [5][32]. Group 1: Market Review - As of December 31, WTI crude futures closed at $57.42 per barrel, Brent at $60.85 per barrel, and INE crude at 436.5 yuan per barrel, reflecting monthly declines of 1.93%, 3.72%, and 3.19% respectively [5][32]. - The oil prices initially rose due to geopolitical tensions but fell sharply after news of potential ceasefire agreements between Russia and Ukraine, alongside bearish EIA data [6][33]. - The market saw a rebound after hitting a low of $60.16 per barrel for Brent, but the overall recovery was limited due to persistent oversupply [6][33]. Group 2: Global Supply Dynamics - Global crude oil supply remains significantly oversupplied, with U.S. crude production reaching 13.827 million barrels per day, the highest seasonal level in five years [11][38]. - U.S. crude oil demand decreased by 3.34% month-over-month, while commercial inventories stood at 422.888 million barrels, indicating a slight draw but still at a moderate seasonal level [11][38]. - The low oil prices have not substantially impacted the operational costs of U.S. shale oil production, which are estimated at around $45 per barrel [11][38]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical conflicts have become a major trading anchor, with significant events such as attacks on energy facilities by both Ukraine and Russia influencing market sentiment [23][50]. - The U.S. has intensified its blockade on Venezuela, impacting its oil exports, although the overall effect on global supply remains manageable [24][51]. - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are also contributing to market volatility and uncertainty [32].