财政、货币政策协同发力 经济延续复苏态势

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience a structural adjustment with a focus on sustainable growth, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2][3][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The overall economic performance in 2025 laid a solid foundation for 2026, with GDP growth expected around 5.1% for 2025 [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025 showed manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, and a composite PMI at 50.7%, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [2]. Structural Adjustments - The "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) are projected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time in 2026 [3]. - The focus for 2026 will shift towards structural adjustments rather than just quantitative growth, with policies aimed at enhancing consumption patterns and boosting consumer confidence [3]. Fiscal Policy - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with specific measures including the issuance of long-term special bonds and consumer subsidies [4]. - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds was allocated before the New Year to support consumption during peak seasons [4]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement interest rate cuts of up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026, with potential adjustments occurring before the Spring Festival [5]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and supporting small and micro enterprises [5][6]. Policy Coordination - Recent policies are designed to address current economic challenges, such as weak domestic demand, while also laying the groundwork for long-term development through investments in new productive forces and social welfare [6]. - The coordinated approach of fiscal and monetary policies aims to stimulate domestic demand and accelerate industrial upgrades [6].