美国空袭委内瑞拉，对大宗商品的影响分析

Group 1 - The U.S. has successfully conducted a military operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and his wife, with intentions to control Venezuela's significant oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total [3][30] - Venezuela's oil reserves exceed those of Saudi Arabia and are approximately 6.7 times larger than those of the U.S. [3][30] - The United Nations Secretary-General expressed shock over the escalating situation in Venezuela, and an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the U.S. military actions [3][30] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions may lead to a decline in market risk appetite, potentially increasing demand for precious metals as a safe haven [31][32] - The U.S. military action is expected to have a limited short-term impact on commodity prices, as the operation was swift and aimed at minimizing market disruption [33] - Long-term implications may include increased instability in the region, with potential for heightened military competition and resource conflicts among nations [33][34] Group 3 - Venezuela's political turmoil directly impacts the international crude oil market, with OPEC data indicating its oil reserves are the highest globally at 3,032 billion barrels [36] - The country's oil production is projected to be 920,000 barrels per day in 2024, with exports around 660,000 barrels per day, but recent sanctions have tightened these figures [36][37] - The military actions have led to a complete halt in Venezuela's oil exports, significantly raising market risk perceptions despite the country's relatively small share of global oil production [37][38] Group 4 - The disruption in Venezuela's oil supply is expected to create a short-term spike in asphalt prices due to the country's heavy crude oil being a key raw material for asphalt production [39][40] - The conflict may also affect methanol imports to China, which currently accounts for about 7% of its total methanol imports from Venezuela [39][40] Group 5 - The geopolitical conflict may reshape resource security perceptions, potentially increasing metal prices due to supply risks [42][43] - The U.S. military intervention signals a shift in how geopolitical factors will influence the pricing of key minerals, with a focus on strategic reserves amid rising global tensions [43][44] - Future U.S. actions may target other resource-rich countries in Latin America, further impacting global supply chains and resource pricing [44][45]