【豆系观察】南美天气回归交易主线，丰产前景打压美盘表现

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that CBOT soybeans are currently facing dual pressures: uncertainty in China's policy-driven procurement rhythm and favorable weather conditions in South America that bolster production expectations, thereby suppressing global soybean prices [3][21][41] - The upcoming January USDA report is anticipated to potentially lower the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast to between 52-52.5 bushels per acre, which could lead to an ending stock around 200 million bushels, supporting a rebound in U.S. soybean prices [3][21][41] - The USDA's December cost accounting report raised the planting cost for U.S. soybeans for 2024-2025, which typically serves as a bottom support for CBOT soybeans, although this methodology seems to have failed recently due to increasing South American soybean production [3][22][35] Group 2 - Brazil's soybean crop is entering a critical growth phase, with short-term forecasts indicating favorable rainfall conditions across most regions, although some areas may experience drought [4][32] - Argentina's soybean planting is nearing completion, but forecasts suggest below-average rainfall in the southern regions, which could adversely affect early soybean growth [4][32] - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by an overall surplus but with structural tightness, leading to a positive trend in the M35 price spread [5][23][40] Group 3 - The actual export growth rate as of December 11 is reported at -33.16%, indicating a potential downward adjustment in the USDA's export forecast [9][34] - The actual crushing growth rate is higher than the USDA's implied growth rate, suggesting potential for upward adjustments, although capacity constraints may limit this [34] - The domestic soybean supply is generally ample, but localized tightness exists, with ongoing new soybean purchases and auctions by the state grain reserve supporting prices [5][23][40]