商品：定价门罗主义2.0，美委冲突之后…

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. military actions against Venezuela and the strategic shift towards a more aggressive "Monroe Doctrine 2.0," aimed at securing U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and controlling valuable resources like oil [3][17]. Group A: Global Heavy Oil Trade Restructuring - Any severe control measures will likely lead to a loss of approximately 600,000 to 800,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil supply, primarily affecting Asian markets [5][19]. - Venezuela's proven oil reserves are approximately 297.6 billion barrels, accounting for 17.8% of the world's total, with the Orinoco heavy oil belt containing about 220 billion barrels [6][20]. - If the U.S. successfully integrates Venezuelan oil into its supply system, the global heavy oil trade flow will shift from global circulation to regional alignment, with Venezuela's heavy oil accounting for about 5% of global supply [6][20]. Group B: U.S. Strategic Intentions and Resource Expansion in Latin America - The U.S. military pressure on Venezuela is part of a broader strategy to reassert its dominance in the Western Hemisphere and counter the influence of external powers like Russia [8][22]. - Key minerals in the region, such as lithium and rare earth elements, are becoming increasingly important, with South America's "lithium triangle" containing about 60% of the world's lithium resources [8][22]. - Brazil holds approximately 23% of the world's rare earth reserves, making it a significant player in the global market for strategic minerals [9][23]. Group C: Future Considerations - The current state of Venezuelan oil production is not severely threatened, but the destination of exports may change significantly, impacting global asphalt supply [10][24]. - The asphalt market is currently in a "low-price-tight balance" state, with no significant supply-demand conflicts, allowing for potential upward price elasticity in the near future [11][25]. - Future monitoring should focus on Venezuelan oil production and export data, U.S. sanctions policies, and the monthly import volumes of diluted asphalt in China [11][25].