市场脱离低回报区域可布局四条主线

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares is expected to rise from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a more favorable profitability trend [1] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on four main lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a particular emphasis on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the characteristics of "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth are observed, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, and the recovery of trade settlement rates along with visa-free entry for foreign tourists has led to improved sales net profit margins in sectors such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - The financial landscape shows a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage are expected to resonate with the non-bank sector and the recovery of ROE [2]