AI强需拉动，26Q1存储芯片价格有望继续大涨

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for AI is expected to drive significant price increases in storage chips, with projections indicating a rise of up to 1800% for DDR4 16Gb and 500% for DDR5 16Gb by 2025, alongside a continued supply-demand imbalance into 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total investment in AI infrastructure by major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) is projected to reach a historical high of $600 billion (approximately 4.2 trillion RMB) by 2026 [2]. - The global demand for DRAM is expected to grow at a rate of 20% to 25%, while the supply is anticipated to increase by only 15% to 20% in 2026 [1][2]. - NAND bit supply is projected to grow by 13% to 18%, with demand increasing by 18% to 23% in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Price Projections - In Q1 2026, storage contract prices are expected to continue rising, with increases projected between 30% and 40% [2]. - Prices for DDR5 RDIMM memory are anticipated to rise by over 40%, while NAND flash prices are expected to see double-digit percentage increases [2]. - Enterprise SSD prices are forecasted to increase by 20% to 30% [2]. Group 3: Industry Developments - TSMC's 2nm process technology is in high demand, with plans to establish 10 factories in Taiwan and the U.S. by the end of 2026, aiming for a capacity of 80,000 to 100,000 wafers [2]. - TSMC's revenue from 2nm technology is expected to surpass that of 3nm and 5nm processes combined by Q3 2026 [2]. - The CES 2026 event is anticipated to showcase significant advancements in AI hardware, including AI/AR glasses, robotics, and high-performance AI edge chips [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook on AI-related PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and industries benefiting from self-sufficiency [3]. - Strong demand for AI PCBs is leading to increased orders and production capacity among several companies, with expectations of high growth in Q4 and the following year [3]. - The overall industry indicators show a stable upward trend in consumer electronics, PCBs, semiconductor chips, and passive components [3].