中信证券:2026年旅游市场红火开局 离岛免税复苏强劲
智通财经网·2026-01-05 01:28

Overall Market Outlook - The domestic tourism market is expected to perform well in 2026, with a projected increase of approximately 5% in domestic travel volume and 6% in total spending during the New Year holiday compared to 2024 [1] - The recovery trend remains K-shaped, with a low base effect for mid-tier consumer leaders and a shift from pilot exploration to large-scale replication in outbound demand [1] Domestic Travel Performance - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a 5.2% increase from 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [1] - The average spending per person increased by 1.1% compared to 2024, driven by a rich supply of winter tourism options [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 198 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales during the New Year holiday saw a significant increase, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [2] - The number of shoppers increased by 60.6% compared to the previous year, indicating strong recovery post-border closure [2] Scenic Spots Performance - Major scenic spots showed strong performance, with Songcheng performing 67 shows, a 52.3% increase from 2024, and Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors, up 76.5% [3] - Emei Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain also reported significant increases in visitor numbers, with growth rates of 20.9% and approximately 30% respectively [3] Online Travel Agency (OTA) Trends - The "please take 3 days off for 8 days" trend boosted long-distance travel demand, with significant increases in flight and hotel bookings [4] - High-quality hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in bookings, with domestic hotel reservations increasing by 280% on January 1 [4] Hotel Industry Insights - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels during the New Year holiday was 204.3 yuan, a 13.8% increase from 2025, although still lower than 2024 [6] - The occupancy rate for hotels was 59.4%, showing a 2.9 percentage point increase from 2025 [6] Restaurant Sector Activity - Restaurant consumption was vibrant, with a 142% increase in traffic for the "must-eat" list during the New Year holiday [7] - Major cities reported significant growth in restaurant sales, with Beijing's dining sector up 4.6% and Guangzhou's up 18.9% year-on-year [7]