供需错配支撑12月月末猪价翘尾 1月或仅在月初出现错配情况

Core Viewpoint - The demand for large pigs is gradually increasing, but the early market release of large pigs has led to a mismatch in supply and demand at the end of the month, significantly supporting pig prices [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In December, the initial bearish expectations for pig prices were based on the assumption of increased supply from the breeding sector and insufficient demand [1]. - The accelerated release of pigs from the supply side, combined with strong market absorption capacity, initially led to a stalemate in supply and demand [1]. - As the breeding sector's release gradually declined and demand for cured meat increased, the supply gap for large pigs widened, supporting a rapid price increase [1][2]. Price Trends - From December 26 to 30, the national average price of lean pigs rose from 11.63 yuan/kg to 12.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.84 yuan/kg, primarily due to the supply-demand mismatch in the large pig market [2]. - As of December 30, the national average price was 11.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.54% month-on-month, indicating that the price drop was less than expected [1]. Regional Price Differences - Provinces with prices significantly above the national average include Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Chongqing, primarily in consumption areas, while provinces with lower prices include Guangxi, Jilin, Guizhou, and Hunan, primarily in production areas [1]. Supply-Demand Dynamics for January - The theoretical supply of pigs in January is expected to slightly decline, but the actual supply may increase due to the potential for early release of pigs from the breeding sector [4]. - The demand in January is anticipated to be concentrated in northern regions, particularly in central areas like Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui, while southern demand is expected to decrease [4][6]. Market Outlook - The market may initially experience a slight supply shortage in January, followed by an improvement in the supply-demand relationship, leading to a potential price increase followed by a slight decrease before a final uptick [6]. - The transfer of market power from southern to central regions is expected as the supply-demand dynamics evolve [6].