华夏基金：2026年港股将是估值收缩+盈利增长的年份

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience valuation contraction alongside profit growth in 2026, with two main categories of leading industries: bottom reversal and strengthened long-term trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant mid-to-long-term investment value, with short-term pullbacks providing better allocation opportunities for investors [1] - Core indices such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index show an upward trend in long-term momentum over the past year, making current short-term corrections predictable and advantageous for institutional entry [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The fundamentals driving the Hong Kong technology sector are clear, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect gathering core domestic AI assets across the entire industry chain, including computing power, models, software applications, and hardware terminals [1] - Major domestic internet companies participating in global AI competition are expected to catalyze a new wave of technology market activity through capital expenditures and upstream/downstream layout actions [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The emergence of DeepSeek is reshaping the competitive advantage of Chinese technology companies globally, leading to a reassessment of investment opportunities by both domestic and international investors [1] - The valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. technology stocks is anticipated to narrow, with the valuation mean expected to rise [1] Group 4: Capital Flow - Continuous inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market is predicted for 2026, with Hong Kong serving as a "bridgehead" for foreign investment in Chinese assets [2] - The correlation of Hong Kong stocks with overseas liquidity is high, and the anticipated new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting September 2025 is expected to support abundant liquidity in the Hong Kong market [2]