光大期货：1月5日软商品日报

Sugar Market Overview - Raw sugar prices in December fluctuated between 14.3 and 15.3 cents per pound. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production for the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% year-on-year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 478, slightly up from 477 the previous year [2][11] - Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume as of December 27 was 14.0733 million tons, down by 2.8243 million tons or 16.71% year-on-year. The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous year, while the sugar extraction rate increased to 9.09%, up by 0.095% year-on-year. The total sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down by 240.6 thousand tons or 15.83% year-on-year [2][11] Domestic Market Insights - In December, the new sugar prices from Guangxi Sugar Group ranged from 5,310 to 5,410 yuan per ton, a decrease of approximately 150 yuan per ton. Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar prices were between 5,140 and 5,240 yuan per ton, also down by about 150 yuan per ton. The main processing sugar factory prices ranged from 5,780 to 5,900 yuan per ton [3][12] - In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a decrease of 93.4 thousand tons year-on-year. From January to November 2025, sugar imports totaled 4.3416 million tons, an increase of 376.4 thousand tons or 9.49% year-on-year. For the 2025/26 season, sugar imports reached 1.1862 million tons, up by 115.9 thousand tons or 10.83% year-on-year [3][13] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market remains relatively calm, with no new updates from Brazil. The production progress in the Northern Hemisphere is the main focus, with India's production significantly ahead year-on-year. However, raw sugar prices have not yet reached levels that would allow India to export, indicating that production issues are more of an emotional restraint rather than an actual increase in trade flows. Future attention will be on India's latest production estimates [4][14] - The domestic sugar market experienced a decline in prices due to optimistic production expectations, leading to a recovery after an oversold situation. January is expected to see continued high production levels, but with ample supply, further price increases may face challenges. The market is expected to stabilize around 5,300 yuan per ton, with a focus on inventory accumulation before the upcoming holiday [4][14]