光大期货：1月5日农产品日报

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - In December, domestic and international oilseed prices showed weak performance, with oil prices initially declining and then rising, while protein meal prices remained weak and volatile [13][15] - The palm oil market is experiencing a contradiction between fundamental supply and seasonal demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited consumption in major markets like China and India [15] - The first quarter is expected to see increased competition in the oilseed market, with a focus on basis trading strategies [14][15] Group 2: Soybeans - Brazil's Mato Grosso will begin harvesting soybeans in January, leading to pressure on soybean prices due to high sales volume and reduced demand from China [14] - Brazilian soybean prices may drop below $400/ton, impacting global soybean prices, while U.S. soybean purchases by China are expected to continue but at a slower pace [14] - The market is awaiting the January supply and demand report to assess the final production and inventory figures for U.S. soybeans [14] Group 3: Eggs - In December, egg futures prices experienced a high-level correction followed by a slight rebound, but the supply remains ample, leading to a weak price trend [16][17] - The average price of brown eggs in China was stable at 3.01 yuan/kg as of December 31, with cautious purchasing behavior from traders ahead of the New Year [16][17] - The number of egg-laying hens continues to decline, but overall supply remains sufficient, leading to a recommendation for cautious observation in the market [17] Group 4: Corn - In December, U.S. corn prices showed resilience, with strong export sales supporting the market despite geopolitical tensions affecting wheat prices [19] - Domestic corn prices remained strong, with an average price of 2313 yuan/ton as of December 31, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [19] - The market is balancing supply and demand, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to weak terminal demand [19] Group 5: Pork - In December, the price of live pigs increased due to seasonal demand, with the national average price reaching 12.48 yuan/kg, up 1.36 yuan from the previous month [20] - The number of breeding sows decreased slightly, but the demand for heavier pigs has increased, supporting prices [20] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by strong supply and demand dynamics [20]