地缘冲突再起，资源牛市延续！有色ETF华宝（159876）盘中拉升2.3%续创历史新高，获资金实时净申购780万份

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to exhibit a "bull market" trend, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, reflecting investor confidence in future performance [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, 2026, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.31%, currently up 1.81%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][9]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [1][9]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. military action against Venezuela are expected to drive safe-haven investments in gold, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals [1][14]. - Venezuela's gold resource potential is estimated at 3,500 tons, with a projected production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the mid-range of global gold production [1][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - A strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile has disrupted supply, contributing to upward pressure on copper prices [2][15]. - The global copper market is projected to face a shortfall of over 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbated by ongoing U.S. copper tariffs and a price premium of $100 per ton for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][15]. Group 4: Aluminum Market Developments - LME aluminum prices have surged past $3,000, marking the highest level since 2022, driven by concerns over supply stability due to the indefinite shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique [5][16]. - Global demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by 150,000 to 187,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 2.5%, while supply remains tight due to potential power shortages [5][16]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to benefit from a confluence of factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved macroeconomic expectations, leading to a sustained bullish trend [5][17]. - Analysts from Zhongjin Company and Zhongtai Securities express optimism for a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector in 2026, driven by synchronized growth in monetary policy, demand, and supply [5][17]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its associated funds provide broad coverage across various non-ferrous metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][18].