绿色甲醇系列二：不同技术路线的经济性如何？

Core Insights - The production of green methanol can be categorized based on the source of raw materials and the process used to synthesize syngas, including carbon capture coupled with green hydrogen, biomass gasification, biomass coupled with green hydrogen, and biomass reforming [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Capture Coupled with Green Hydrogen - The expected cost of green methanol production using this method is approximately 4251 RMB/ton, with major costs coming from hydrogen (74.0%) and CO2 (12.9%) [1]. - The investment payback period is estimated at 10.2 years, which can be reduced to 7.7 years if the green electricity price drops to 0.15 RMB/kWh [2]. Group 2: Biomass Gasification - The production cost for methanol via biomass gasification is around 2669 RMB/ton, primarily driven by biomass raw material costs (47.0%) and depreciation (20.1%) [2]. - The investment payback period is estimated at 3.4 years, which could extend to 5.5 years if biomass prices rise to 1200 RMB/ton [2]. Group 3: Biomass Coupled with Green Hydrogen - Two scenarios are analyzed: - Scenario 1 (CO2 direct emission) has a cost of approximately 2920 RMB/ton, with major costs from green hydrogen (34.9%) and biomass (29.3%) [3]. - Scenario 2 (CO2 utilization) has a cost of about 3176 RMB/ton, with green hydrogen costs at 55.4% [3]. - The investment payback period for Scenario 1 is 3.9 years, potentially reducing to 3.4 years with a green electricity price of 0.10 RMB/kWh [3]. Group 4: Biogas Reforming - The estimated cost for methanol production through biogas reforming is around 3488 RMB/ton, with significant costs from biogas (44.7%) and hydrogen (19.7%) [4]. - The investment payback period is projected at 6.2 years, which could increase to 9.0 years if biogas prices rise to 3.0 RMB/m³ [4]. Group 5: Summary of Economic Viability - The biomass gasification route is currently the most economical, with advantages in production cost and payback period compared to other methods [5]. - The economic viability of biomass gasification and biogas reforming is sensitive to biomass prices, while carbon capture coupled with green hydrogen and biomass coupled with green hydrogen are sensitive to green electricity prices [5]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The green hydrogen and methanol industry chain is viewed positively for investment, with a focus on the sustainability of resource endowments and cost reduction [6].