全球主要发达经济体降息周期预判落幕

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Trends - Global monetary policy is approaching a turning point, with major developed economies nearing the end of their interest rate cut cycles by 2026 [1] - The uncertainty in the global economy and international financial markets is increasing [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its last interest rate decision for 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-3.5%, marking the sixth cut since the easing cycle began in September 2024 [2] - The U.S. economy faced challenges in 2025, with a rising unemployment rate of 4.4% and inflation at 3% in September, prompting the Fed to prioritize employment recovery over inflation concerns [3] - Positive economic changes were noted, with a GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, and a decrease in CPI growth to 2.7% in December, indicating a potential end to the current rate cut cycle [4] Group 3: Reserve Management Debt Purchase Plan - In December 2025, the Federal Reserve announced a "Reserve Management Debt Purchase" plan, starting with the purchase of $40 billion in short-term government bonds to maintain adequate reserve supply [5] Group 4: Bank of Japan's Actions - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% in December 2025, marking the end of an ultra-loose monetary policy era [6] - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, driven by wage increases and a depreciating yen [7] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates in 2026, potentially increasing the benchmark rate to 1.0% by the end of the year [11] Group 5: Bank of England's Actions - The Bank of England cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in December 2025, marking the fourth cut of the year due to rising unemployment and weak economic growth [12] - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.1% by October 2025, the highest level since 2021, while inflation pressures eased with CPI growth at 3.2% in November [13] Group 6: European Central Bank's Actions - The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates in December 2025, indicating a pause in the rate cut cycle as inflation stabilized around the 2% target [15][16] - The Eurozone economy showed signs of moderate recovery, with a GDP growth rate of 0.3% in Q3 2025, leading to expectations that the ECB may not lower rates further and could enter a tightening phase by the end of 2026 [18] Group 7: Summary of Global Monetary Policy Outlook - The global monetary policy landscape is shifting, with major developed economies transitioning from a period of aggressive rate cuts to a potential tightening phase by 2026, as inflation pressures ease and economic conditions stabilize [19][20]