华泰期货：南美丰产预期延续，豆粕价格偏弱震荡

Group 1: Soybean Meal Market Insights - The futures market saw a decline in soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices, with soybean meal 2605 contract closing at 2749 CNY/ton, down 96 CNY/ton (3.37%) from the previous month [2][14] - In the spot market, soybean meal prices in Tianjin rose to 3110 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong also saw increases [2][14] - Brazil's soybean planting progress reached 97.9% as of December 27, 2025, slightly above the five-year average but below last year's level [3][15] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Import and Processing Data - China imported 810.7 million tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.3 million tons from October, but an increase of 95.3 million tons (13.32%) year-on-year [4][15] - Cumulative soybean imports from January to November 2025 reached 10,378.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 668.72 million tons (6.89%) [4][15] - The total soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 906.75 million tons, up 5 million tons (0.55%) from the previous month and up 76.38 million tons (9.20%) year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Soybean and Meal Inventory Levels - As of December 26, 2025, national soybean inventory stood at 654.44 million tons, down 60.55 million tons (8.41%) month-on-month, but up 64.44 million tons (11.7%) year-on-year [5][16] - The soybean meal inventory increased to 116.75 million tons, up 1.61 million tons (1.35%) from the previous month and up 46.44 million tons (47.19%) year-on-year [5][16] - Major oil mills' soybean meal deliveries reached 408.62 million tons, an increase of 55.9 million tons (15.85%) month-on-month and up 41.51 million tons (11.31%) year-on-year [5][16] Group 4: Corn Market Insights - The corn futures market saw a slight decline, with the 2603 contract closing at 2226 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton (0.58%) [6][18] - In November 2025, corn imports totaled 55.48 million tons, a significant increase of 55.56% month-on-month and 87.50% year-on-year [7][18] - The estimated corn consumption for December 2025 among major processing enterprises is 620 million tons, an increase of 16 million tons from the previous month [7][18] Group 5: Starch Market Insights - In November 2025, corn starch imports were recorded at 274 tons, a decrease of 71.79% month-on-month but an increase of 51.19% year-on-year [8][19] - The total production of corn starch in December 2025 was 139.65 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.4%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [8][19] - The average profit for corn starch products in December showed a decline, with Jilin's average profit at -72 CNY/ton, down 168 CNY/ton month-on-month [8][19]