【机构策略】春季躁动提前 牛市格局依旧未改

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bull market remains intact, with an early onset of spring rally driven by multiple positive factors leading into 2026, which is expected to be a significant year for the market [1] - Macro policy cycles indicate that 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with various departments actively rolling out supportive industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment [1] - Institutional funds, particularly represented by stock ETFs, have shown signs of early entry into the market, with foreign capital expected to return due to currency appreciation, enhancing the spring market trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed mixed performance last Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing narrow fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index initially opened high but later retreated [2] - Certain sectors such as aerospace, software development, non-ferrous metals, and internet services performed well, while industries like pharmaceutical commerce, precious metals, shipbuilding, and batteries lagged [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue its interest rate cut cycle in 2026, contributing to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's three major indices exhibited mixed results last Wednesday, with total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is in a state of indecision, yet remains within a bullish range, with key support levels not breached [3] - The market has shown signs of liquidity-driven characteristics, and while there may be fluctuations at the beginning of the year, the overall market is expected to maintain upward potential before the Spring Festival [3]