加元震荡整理政策油价关键变量

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation around 1.37, influenced by central bank policy divergence, oil price volatility, and market liquidity changes [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with a target range of 3.50%-3.75%, while market expectations suggest a continuation of the easing cycle [1] - The Canadian central bank maintains a neutral to hawkish stance, with a current benchmark rate of 2.25%, supporting the Canadian dollar [2] Group 2 - The Canadian economy shows resilience with a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3 2025 and a declining unemployment rate of 6.5%, reinforcing the central bank's policy stance [2] - The Canadian dollar is closely linked to oil prices, with recent WTI crude oil prices rebounding to $57.20 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CAD pair is in a downward channel, with key support at 1.3640 and resistance at 1.3720-1.3750, suggesting potential further declines [3] Group 3 - Future exchange rate movements will depend on three core variables: the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the timing of any policy shifts from the Bank of Canada, and the recovery strength of oil prices [3] - Some institutions are bullish on the Canadian dollar, predicting it could rise to 77 cents against the USD in 2026, but caution against potential risks from policy expectation adjustments and geopolitical tensions [3]