聚丙烯：现货供应紧俏支撑下 华南区域涨势持续性几何

Core Viewpoint - Since late December, the PP market in South China has shown relative strength due to tight spot resource circulation and stable demand, with expectations of rising upstream raw material prices driven by geopolitical fluctuations [2][10][14] Group 1: Market Performance - The PP market in South China has experienced a slight rebound since late December, primarily due to the continuous inventory control by upstream enterprises, resulting in no significant pressure on spot supply [2][10] - As of January 4, 2026, the average price of PP in South China was 6265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40-60 yuan/ton compared to mid-December [2][10] - The market is expected to maintain a warm operating trend in the short term, although the support from supply and demand fundamentals may weaken in the latter half of the month [6][14] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The South China region has seen several facilities, including Huizhou Litop and Guangzhou Petrochemical, undergoing maintenance, leading to a relatively high level of repair loss [4][12] - The weekly production in South China for the week of December 26 to January 1 was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous week [4][12] - Despite the tight supply of spot resources, downstream factories are primarily maintaining low-level demand without significant replenishment intentions, which limits the upward price movement of the PP market [4][12] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly restrictions on oil exports from certain Latin American countries, have significantly impacted crude oil prices, leading to expectations of cost increases that support PP prices [4][12] - The market price has seen a slight increase of 10-40 yuan/ton due to these cost expectations, although downstream buyers remain cautious and are primarily making minimal purchases based on immediate needs [4][12]