阿根廷大豆播种接近尾声 豆粕供应预期宽松

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly concerned about the dry weather forecast in Argentina, but local exchange data indicates sufficient soil moisture, suggesting limited impact on soybean yield estimates. The domestic soybean meal market is currently oversupplied, with cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, leading to expectations of a downward price trend, with national average prices projected to drop to 3000 yuan/ton in early January [2][11][18]. Group 1: Argentina Soybean Planting and Yield - As of December 30, 2025, soybean planting in Argentina is 82% complete, a 6.5% increase compared to the previous period. Adequate rainfall has accelerated planting in the northern regions, with 96.1% of the planted crops reported as in excellent or normal condition, and 97% of the soil moisture rated as optimal [12][14]. - 17.3% of the first batch of high-quality soybeans has entered the reproductive growth stage, while 71.9% of the second batch of ordinary soybeans has completed the planned planting area, with overall good emergence rates [12][14]. - Despite being behind last year's planting pace, the current planting speed is still relatively fast compared to previous periods, resulting in a muted price response to year-on-year data [12][14]. Group 2: Soil Conditions and Weather Impact - As of December 30, 2025, the soil moisture suitability in soybean-producing areas is rated at 97%, compared to 81% in the same period last year. Although there are localized rains in the northern regions, the central and southern areas remain mostly dry, which may stress soybean growth [14]. - Even with short-term localized drought conditions, the ample soil moisture can provide a counterbalance to potential negative impacts on soybean growth [14]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by a surplus, with national soybean stocks at 6.39 million tons, an 11.7% year-on-year increase, and soybean meal stocks at 1.12 million tons, a 104% year-on-year increase [16]. - The current supply situation is unlikely to change in the short term, with cautious purchasing behavior from the demand side for spot purchases and a lack of interest in forward contracts, leading to overall supply-demand conditions that exert downward pressure on soybean meal prices [16].