广发证券:予百胜中国(09987)“买入”评级 合理价值453.62港元
智通财经网·2026-01-05 02:27

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities projects Yum China (09987) to achieve net profits of $9.2 billion, $10.1 billion, and $10.9 billion for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a strong same-store performance and expansion expectations, maintaining a high shareholder return guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The expected net profits for Yum China are $9.2 billion in 2025, $10.1 billion in 2026, and $10.9 billion in 2027 [1] - The company maintains a target of 0-2% same-store sales growth for 2026-2028, indicating strong anti-cyclical capabilities [1] Group 2: Operational Strengths - The company is supported by excellent operational levels, strong brand momentum, and a comprehensive digital system and supply chain, facilitating rapid expansion [1] - The total number of stores is projected to reach 20,000 in 2026, 25,000 in 2028, and 30,000 in 2030, aided by optimized capital expenditure per store and flexible store formats [1] Group 3: Same-Store Sales Drivers - Key drivers for same-store sales improvement include new modules like KFC's KPRO, a solid lineup of classic products, and the introduction of new popular items [2] - The brand "Crazy Thursday" has become a significant marketing IP, enhancing customer loyalty through brand membership and collaborations [2] - The company is expanding its delivery sales and exploring new dining scenarios, such as single-person meals and meal-sharing options [2] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain annual dividends and buybacks of $1.5 billion for 2025-2026, with a current market value corresponding to a return rate of 8.8% [3] - For 2027 and beyond, the expected shareholder return is projected to be approximately 100% of the group's free cash flow, with annual returns of at least $9-10 billion anticipated for 2027-2028 [3]