新兴市场债券获本土资金“压舱”，2026年抗波动能力支撑牛市延续

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds are expected to gain support by 2026 as these securities are increasingly held by local investors who are less affected by currency risks, thus demonstrating greater resilience [1][4]. Group 1: Local Investor Trends - Local pension funds and insurance companies in developing countries are increasing their purchases of domestic currency bonds to meet their growing liabilities [1]. - The relative decline in foreign ownership of emerging market bonds is a key reason for the positive outlook on this asset class [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding Mexican bonds has decreased from approximately 29% at the beginning of 2020 to about 11%, while the share for Indonesian bonds has dropped from nearly 40% to around 13% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Performance and Volatility - Emerging market bonds showed strong performance in 2025, with an index return of 9.3%, the best since 2019, compared to a 6.3% return for developed market bonds [4]. - The volatility of emerging market bonds is generally lower than that of developed market bonds, with a standard deviation of yield changes over the past 12 months at 0.02 compared to 0.04 for developed markets [5]. - The correlation between emerging market local currency government bond indices and U.S. Treasury yields has decreased to -0.06, the lowest level since 2014, indicating reduced sensitivity to U.S. market fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Market Maturity - Local bond buyers are typically less affected by exchange rate risks and tend to be more strategic long-term holders, indicating a maturation and deepening of financial markets [5]. - The withdrawal of foreign investors helps reduce specific market sensitivity to global market forces, thereby giving greater importance to domestic factors [6].