石脑油市场延续分化态势

Group 1 - The global naphtha market is currently in a state of divergence, with expectations of this trend continuing into 2026 [1] - In Asia, the market faces pressure from weak petrochemical profits due to ongoing capacity optimization and uncertainties in Russian naphtha supply [1] - The European naphtha market is primarily characterized by structural contraction, while the US market is expected to experience a moderate recovery [1] Group 2 - In Asia, the restructuring plan of the South Korean petrochemical industry is a key focus, with plans to cut ethylene capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year [1] - Major companies like LG Chem and GS Caltex are exploring integration of naphtha cracking facilities, while specific plans from other producers are still pending [1] - Japan's naphtha demand is declining due to low petrochemical product profits and planned facility shutdowns, with significant reductions in ethylene capacity in the Chiba region [2] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding Russian supply has led to decreased purchasing interest from buyers in Asia, with more arbitrage supplies from Europe and the US flowing into the Asian market [2] - Despite the ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the uncertainty in Russian naphtha supply remains, although current market supply is still considered adequate [2] - In Europe, traditional oil-based naphtha demand is expected to decrease at an average rate of 1.2% annually due to deepening carbon neutrality policies and refinery shutdowns [3] Group 4 - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected to increase production costs by $25 per ton, further suppressing demand [3] - In the US, naphtha demand growth is expected to rebound to 1.8% due to the easing of ethane substitution effects and the commissioning of new petrochemical projects along the Gulf Coast [3] - The increase in US light naphtha exports to Europe may further stimulate domestic demand [3]