对话中国（上海）自贸区研究院刘斌：进入“十五五”，人民币国际化进程有望明显提速

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period marks a significant historical juncture for China's financial system, emphasizing the construction of a financial powerhouse and the development of high-quality financial infrastructure to support the real economy [1][20]. Group 1: Digital Currency and Cross-Border Payment - Over 90% of central banks globally have been exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the past decade, with China leading the way since 2014 [6][25]. - The digital yuan pilot has expanded to cover 26 regions across 17 provinces, with cumulative transaction amounts reaching 7.3 trillion yuan by July 2024 and projected to reach 14.2 trillion yuan by September 2025 [6][25]. - The "Digital Currency Bridge" (m-Bridge) is highlighted as a significant platform for cross-border applications of the digital yuan, showcasing China's advancements in this area [6][26]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB has been relatively moderate during the "14th Five-Year Plan," but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring more favorable changes due to external and internal conditions [1][21]. - A weakening US dollar may create a temporary trend that encourages global funds to diversify into assets including the RMB, thereby increasing demand for related currencies [21][33]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has risen significantly in sectors like technology, new energy, and manufacturing, which is crucial for the internationalization of the RMB [21][33]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure and Policy Support - China is building its financial infrastructure, such as the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), to support the internationalization of the RMB and national strategies [7][26]. - The country's proactive policies, including bilateral currency swap arrangements with multiple central banks, provide foundational conditions for the overseas use of the RMB [34]. - Expanding the scenarios for RMB pricing and settlement in commodities and energy trade is expected to significantly promote RMB internationalization [34]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The digital yuan's classification as M0 and its non-interest-bearing nature may hinder commercial banks' enthusiasm for participation, necessitating adjustments in promotion mechanisms [36]. - The development of a robust domestic ecosystem for the digital yuan is essential for its successful cross-border application, as a lack of investment opportunities may deter foreign entities from using RMB for settlement [36][38]. - The internationalization of the RMB is a complex process that requires a balance between micro-level asset availability and macro-level capital flow management [37].