委内瑞拉变局下，两大可乐巨头迎来商业机遇？

Core Insights - Venezuela has historically been a focal point for PepsiCo (PEP.US) and Coca-Cola (KO.US) due to its oil wealth, large urban consumer base, and significantly higher soft drink consumption compared to other South American and Central American countries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - PepsiCo entered the Venezuelan market in 1940 and became the dominant cola brand through the Cisneros Group until 1996 when bottling operations were transferred to Coca-Cola [2] - In response, PepsiCo formed a joint venture with Empresas Polar to re-enter the market, allowing local control over bottling and distribution while PepsiCo retained brand ownership [2] - Coca-Cola operates through a local bottler associated with Coca-Cola FEMSA, although this business has been removed from consolidated financial statements and faces a high-risk operational environment [2] Group 2: Future Opportunities - The Venezuelan market shows potential for reconstruction with the onset of external intervention and a new regime by early 2026, which could lead to supply chain modernization and strategic realignment for both companies [3] - If international sanctions are eased and currency stabilizes, both PepsiCo and Coca-Cola may improve their supply chain management and factory modernization, allowing for a strategic adjustment in the crucial Latin American market [3] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Despite potential opportunities, high inflation expectations and a damaged distribution network present significant challenges, with the primary task for 2026 being the assessment of political risks and gradual restoration of basic production capacity [3] - The ongoing political turmoil and regime changes pose severe operational challenges for both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, forcing them to shift from profit-seeking to crisis management due to persistent hyperinflation and shortages of raw materials [3] - While PepsiCo has shown operational resilience through its joint venture with Polar, both companies have seen their market shares severely constrained by a drastic decline in consumer purchasing power [3]