PTA：南美某国受袭PTA行情高开低走？

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in a South American country have created short-term support for the oil market, indirectly benefiting PTA, but the onset of the demand off-season and maintenance in downstream polyester factories may lead to a mixed market outlook for PTA, potentially resulting in a high opening followed by a decline [1][2][7]. Geopolitical Impact - On January 3, the U.S. initiated an attack in a South American country, capturing its leader, which raised concerns about potential impacts on the country's oil production and exports, providing short-term support for oil prices and possibly boosting PTA prices [2][3]. - The oil exports from the South American country are currently paralyzed, significantly affecting its logistics system, which is expected to support the PTA market from the supply side [3]. Cost and Supply Dynamics - The geopolitical issues are expected to create upward pressure on costs, as the South American country's oil production is primarily high-sulfur heavy oil, which has higher extraction, transportation, and processing costs compared to light crude oil [3]. - China's imports of oil from the South American country account for about 7%, and any disruption in logistics may impact these imports, positively affecting market sentiment towards PTA [3]. Demand Seasonality - The demand off-season is approaching, with historical data indicating a 9 percentage point decrease in operating rates for downstream polyester factories during January and February, which is bearish for the PTA market [5]. - By mid-January, polyester production is expected to decline to around 6.5 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons compared to December 2025, due to maintenance schedules for polyester plants [5]. Market Outlook - The PTA market is anticipated to experience a tug-of-war between cost support from geopolitical issues and declining demand, with short-term price fluctuations expected to range between 5,100 and 5,250 yuan per ton [7]. - While the geopolitical situation may provide temporary market support, the high costs associated with high-sulfur heavy oil and the anticipated decline in PTA demand are likely to offset the initial positive effects of rising oil prices [7].