Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-05 03:37Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that incremental capital entering the market will not be the main factor for the market to reach a new level in 2026, with the biggest expectation gap coming from the balance between external and internal demand [1] - The trend of imposing tariffs externally and subsidizing domestic demand is expected to be a major direction, with this year being an important starting point [1] - The market is likely to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the year, considering the relatively low capital enthusiasm at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The A-share cross-year market trend is unfolding as expected, with the liquidity and exchange rate environment at the beginning of this year being significantly better than the previous two years [1] - The strong renminbi exchange rate and favorable external environment may lead to a "New Year Red" market for A-shares after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including renminbi appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market, are expected to drive the A-share cross-year market [1] Group 3 - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4000 points after 34 trading days, with a rise of 0.85% to 4002.40 points [2] - Insurance stocks led the gains, while sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors were active [2]