华创证券张瑜：委内瑞拉有什么、卖什么？

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela, focusing on Venezuela's basic national conditions, particularly its natural resources and export situation [1][30]. Group 1: Population and Geography - Venezuela is located in the northern part of South America, covering an area of 916,400 square kilometers, with an estimated population of approximately 28.4 million in 2024 [2][31]. - The country shares borders with Guyana to the east, Brazil to the south, and Colombia to the west, with the Caribbean Sea to the north. Major ports include Cabello, La Guaira, and Maracaibo, with José and Maracaibo being the main oil export ports [2][31]. Group 2: Political and Military Overview - Venezuela operates under a presidential system, with the president serving as the head of state, government, and armed forces for a term of six years without term limits. The country has approximately 200,000 active military personnel and around 8 million militia reserves [2][32][42]. Group 3: Major Natural Resources - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves, with a potential extraction period of nearly 900 years [3][34][43]. - The country ranks eighth globally in proven natural gas reserves, with approximately 201 trillion cubic feet, representing about 2.9% of the world's total [4][15][43]. - The official gold reserves are around 53 tons, with an additional 31 tons held in the Bank of England since 2018. However, estimates of untapped gold reserves vary significantly, with claims of over 8,000 tons from the government [4][18][47]. - Iron ore reserves are reported to be between 2.2 billion to 4 billion tons, with estimates suggesting they account for 1-2% of global reserves [4][20][48]. - Other mineral resources include bauxite (34.8 billion tons), titanium (39 million tons), diamonds (41 million carats), coal (730 million tons), and nickel (490,000 tons), with respective global shares of approximately 4.4%, 7%, 0.1%, 0.4% [5][23][50]. - Venezuela has abundant water and forest resources, with a forest coverage rate of about 52%, compared to the global average of 32% [6][24][51]. Group 4: Major Export Situation - The main export destinations for Venezuela are the United States, China, and Spain, with total exports in 2023 amounting to approximately $7.63 billion. Exports to the U.S., China, and Spain were about $3.81 billion, $740 million, and $670 million, respectively, accounting for approximately 50%, 10%, and 9% of total exports [7][25][52]. - Key export products include oil and its derivatives (60% of total exports), basic metals (iron and aluminum), nitrogen fertilizers, and others [7][25][52]. - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production is estimated at approximately 934,000 barrels per day, with an expected export volume of about 656,000 barrels per day in 2024 [7][27][55].