“有色牛”延续：地缘风险叠加新兴需求，锡价开启新年强势行情！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the strong opening of tin prices in 2026 is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and emerging demand, leading to a structural bull market in non-ferrous metals [1][3] Group 2 - Supply tightness is the main support for the rise in tin prices, with domestic tin concentrate arrivals declining and Indonesia tightening resource export controls, resulting in limited supply to the Chinese market [1][2] - The demand side shows a clear structural differentiation, with traditional electronics experiencing weakness while AI computing and photovoltaic installations drive new demand [2] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment and capital inflows are positively catalyzing the market, with institutions optimistic about the performance of non-ferrous metals in 2026 due to loose monetary policy, demand recovery, and supply constraints [2] Group 4 - Short-term outlook suggests tin prices will maintain a strong oscillation around high levels, with a core fluctuation range of 330,000 to 338,000 yuan/ton, while monitoring key variables such as the actual progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [2]